Heading to New Partners, reading the program on the plane. like last year I’m awed by the roll call of speakers and the diversity of projects that are going on. It’s a way of keeping me honest about the role of technology in planning. More reminders that it’s always about people and places first, and tools second.
During the final session at the second Lincoln/Sonoran scenario planning tools get-together in October, I foolishly said that my first follow up from the event would be to go home and write a blog post. And here we are…
So what’s useful about intending to write a blog post? At the time, I thought (and still think) that think greater visibility for the effort was the missing piece. Over two days, we talked about the state of the art in scenario tools — mature desktop GIS-based products, new approaches with video game engines, parcel-based calculation engines, the lot. Proprietary, sort-of open, and completely open, all projects led by really smart people. As a scenario planning dummy myself, all very impressive.
And yet, the mindshare of these tools is still small outside the world of planning. Talking to non-planners (yes, occasionally), the existence, innovation, and value to society of the tools from the workshop is not understood. There are lots of reasons – these tools come to life in the hands of pros, backed by complex data, made sensible by nuances of configuration, informing long-term multi-juristictional other-hyphenated etc-etc etc. All true. We distrust models and modelers for good reasons, and not all large scale planning processes are engaging or convincing. And so on.
Visibility matters, because these tools can work on your phone. In your hand. Maybe not every tool today, but pretty soon. All the existing challenges and realities of scenarios still apply – caring about far horizons is still hard. But the dispersion of computing power and available data are opening a new entry point into this whole world. More interest brings in new skills, new tool builders with different backgrounds and approaches. Disruptive newcomers, or old-timers with new approaches.
Maybe the next generation won’t be building scenario planning tools in any form that we’ll recognize today. But it’ll be the evolution of the processes and tools we spent two fascinating days discussing in Salt Lake City last year.
(hat tip to Jason at PlaceMatters for getting a blog post up within days of the event…)